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Bernanke Faces His First Big Financial Test
WASHINGTON -- Turmoil in financial markets amid deepening concern about a credit squeeze is leading investors increasingly to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. But many economists question if the central bank will -- and should -- act. Some economists, such as Maria Fiorini Ramirez, who runs her own economic consulting firm in New York, say the Fed should cut rates to help restore confidence in a financial system quivering amid the subprime mortgage mess. "In times of crisis, you need someone to stand up and say, ... 'We'll do what is needed,'" she says. But others argue that the problems in the financial markets are not spilling over into the broad economy. And with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues continuing to focus on bringing down inflation, a rate cut now doesn't make sense, they argue.
John F. Wasik: Where to invest if your home equity evaporates
If you can't depend on your home equity increasing during a U.S. housing downturn, where do you turn for growth? U.S. bonds offer cold comfort. With ultra-safe six-month Treasury Bills yielding as much as 5 percent, your real return is paltry after inflation and taxes. What about U.S. stocks? The specter of a housing recession, consumer slowdown and more ugly surprises in the subprime mortgage market weighs heavily on Wall Street now. That leaves a compelling investment typically neglected by most investors: non-U.S. stocks with high dividends. Since the U.S. home market may get blistered further by a general economic decline, more houses coming on the market or bond yields surging, you will need to find growth elsewhere. If you haven't considered how the global economy is propelling emerging markets, it's time to take a hard look.
Monetary policy: Most bankers see interest rates softening
Ahead of the Reserve Bank's quarterly review of monetary policy on July 31, many bankers feel moderate inflation may put a pause on rate hikes, brightening the prospects of a cut in home and personal loan rates. With many bankers asserting that interest rates have more or less peaked in the country, there are indications that the central bank might not be hawkish in its stance, particularly with inflation falling to 4.27 per cent for the week ended July 7 from over six per cent in April. Though the central bank's efforts to suck out excess liquidity in the busy season credit policy in April had borne fruit, there is still some liquidity overhang which may result in the RBI's tweaking the cash reserve ratio (CRR), some bankers feel. "There might be some action to suck out liquidity -- a hike in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) is a possibility," Development Credit Bank's Head, Treasury, K Harihar, told PTI here.
Central bankers face a new playing field
Days after reaffirming their interest-rate stance against inflation, central bankers may be forced to do an about-face. Traders are abandoning bets on imminent rate increases in Europe and Japan, and some speculate that the Federal Reserve may execute an emergency cut. Behind the changed outlook is concern that the steps central banks have already taken - pumping cash into markets Thursday and Friday to avert a credit collapse - will not be enough to keep global growth from stalling. Earlier last week, Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed, and Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, were saying that inflation, not financial stability, was the biggest risk. "The dramatic moves by many of the world's central banks could imply that we have a whole new ball game when it comes to monetary policy," said David Brown, chief Europe economist at Bear Stearns in London.
Banking on More Political Hazards
As commodity prices boom and expropriation and nationalization re-emerge, banks and other financial institutions thirst for credit and political risk cover. By Graham Buck For the pessimists, there's enough evidence to suggest the world's progress to hell in a handcart is relentless. Periods of hope, such as that following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall in 1989, tend to be brief. Recent years have been marked by the Iraq war, mounting concern over the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, renewed conflict in Lebanon and a more belligerent tone from Russia, whose newly confident mood is supported by wealth from its energy resources. For businesses that operate internationally, add to this volatile mix such headaches as the mood of nationalism being whipped up in parts of Latin America and the danger that selective duties imposed on Chinese goods could prove a first shot in what could escalate into a retaliatory trade war.
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